A Critical Error
COVID-19: How The Government is Trying to Cover-up Their Complete and Total Failure By Taking Away Your Livelihood
It’s no secret that the Canadian government — Ontario specifically — has mishandled the second wave of COVID-19. This is the only reason, I and many other small business owners have been forced to shut down, again.
At this point, any further lockdowns of society are unjust. The government is overstepping and gambling with people’s livelihoods. We cannot afford another wave of bankruptcies and unemployment. They have already created an economic ticking time bomb. It’s time for our government to stop politicizing COVID-19, and to back peddle out of this ‘lockdown’ mentality.
The Real Problem: Schools
By the Actual Numbers
On October 9th, the varying levels of government made an address to the nation. Amongst the many things discussed, Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam said: “Across Canada, there have been 250 schools with COVID-19 cases.” ¹ That was followed by telling us that schools were of little concern with respect to the spread of this virus.
I’ve been reading the news like everyone else so I knew this was inaccurate. After some quick research, here is what I found:
- Quebec currently has 1009 schools with COVID-19. And they are certain that it has caused 3335 cases as of October 9th.²
- In Ontario, there are 425 schools that have been infected, with nearly a thousand cases, yet only 4 schools have been temporarily closed.³
- Alberta has 178.⁴
- British Columbia has 94.⁵
All in we have close to two thousand schools infected with COVID-19, not just the 250 our federal government would like you to believe. This is definitely a big concern, and should not be overlooked.
Where they went wrong
To curb the rapid spread, Doug Ford and our provincial government thought it best to shut down gyms, indoor dining at restaurants (so, restaurants), personal care services that require face coverings to be removed, team sports, and museums. As a guy that owns a few restaurants, this struck me as an odd move. We’ve been open since July 17th, yet the spread just started to increase as of early September — when school started.
Once again, I did research to find some clarity, and here’s what I found:
- Restaurants and Bars were able to open on July 17th. The average number of cases in Canada at that time was 350/day. Over the next ten days, cases got as high as 510, but after that a slow decline to 435 by end of August.
- Schools started back on September 8th, at that time we averaged 456 new cases every day. A week later cases were up to 700 cases per day. A week after that 1057, a week after that 1412, a week after that 1951, today we are at 2352 cases daily.⁶
I’m no rocket scientist or Chief Public Health Officer for that matter, but this seems pretty straightforward.
And The Darwin Award Goes To…The Daily Hive
I’m not a big Hive reader, to be honest, so I won’t eviscerate their entire organization, but one very misleading headline may have been the biggest contributor in swaying opinions about restaurants and bars.
On October 2nd, Clarrie Feinstein wrote an article headlined, “44% of Toronto’s outbreaks linked to restaurants, bars, and entertainment venues” I can see how reading that would give you some genuine concern for the role bars and restaurants are playing in the spread of COVID-19. Now here’s the first sentence that actually explains the facts:
Between September 20 and 26, there were 45 active community outbreaks. Of these outbreaks, about 44% were in restaurants, bars, and entertainment venues.
What this wildly misleading headline really means is that less than 20 “outbreaks” came from bars and restaurants on that week alone. I followed the “outbreaks” and found that only 12–18 TOTAL CASES came out of this whole thing, yet governments used this as hard evidence.⁷
Sleeper cells
Out of the gates, it was suggested that children played a very minor role in the spread of COVID-19. More recently, however, we know that children ten years of age and older are just as likely to be infected or pass the virus on to others. They don’t show severe symptoms, yet they can spread it just as much as anyone — they’re like little sleeper cells, helping the virus spread while going undetected. It has now been suggested that the original school shutdowns were a major catalyst in slowing the spread.
“Children could play a relevant role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission and school closures may have been important contributors to the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic.” — Dr. Peter Juni
The bottom line here is that kids have been massively underestimated in terms of cases and their ability to spread.
The Digital Alternative is Real
Beyond the research and statistics, the government has developed a digital alternative for students. They have online classes, access to teachers, and a way to educate children from home. They‘ve even given iPads to students who were unable to afford a computer or tablet on their own. They invested a massive amount of money in this so why the hell aren’t they using it?
There is no digital solution to my restaurants, in fact, no digital solution for most of the economy. On every level, this has been a colossal disaster. The government has fed us flawed statistics, closed down our businesses with no compelling data, denied the severity of kids’ ability to spread this disease, and to top it off — they had a digital solution this whole time that could have been used to avoid the second wave of COVID in Canada.
By leaving schools open, we will not flatten the curve, and 28 days will just be the beginning of a longer closure.
What Does This Mean For Small Business?
History in the Making
Within the very first month of lockdown, Canada recorded 88,187 business closures, according to Statistics Canada — the biggest recording in its history. Canada also reached an all-time high in unemployment at 13.7%⁸ along with its biggest debt to GDP ratio since World War 2.⁹
The coronavirus shutdown triggered the country’s biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression.
Bill Morneau — Canadian Finance Minister 2015–2020
As of July 29, 2020, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) forecasted that 218,000 small businesses in Canada will be closed down by the time this mess is over. That’s just shy of 20% of our total small businesses but it’s closer to 30% for those in hospitality.¹⁰
Rocky Relief Programs
In an effort to provide businesses with some financial aid the government stumbled around for a bit before launching some programs. Here are the most recent updates for small businesses across Canada:
- The new Canada Emergency Rent Subsidy has been extended until June 2021. The rent subsidy will now be provided directly to tenants. Additionally, a top-up of 25% will be provided for organizations temporarily shut down by a mandatory public health order. This relief will be provided on a sliding scale where revenue drops of 70% or more will receive the full benefit.
- The Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy has also been extended until June 2021. This subsidy will remain at 65% until December of this year, which is again on a sliding scale based on your revenues.
- The Canadian Emergency Business Account has also offered an additional $20k for eligible businesses (the ones suffering the most). Half of which is forgivable if paid back by end of 2022.¹¹
These programs will definitely help, but their extensions into 2021 point to long term closures, not just 28 days. I’m also concerned about the sliding scale revenue minimums on the wage and rent subsidies. With revenues at 30% or less, most businesses will be forced to close, if not just stay afloat. Then they have the issue of repaying CEBA loans over the next two years. This means no profit until 2023. A hard pill to swallow. I expect a lot of those entrepreneurs to shut down and start from scratch so they can actually see some profits in the coming years.
34 per cent of businesses across Canada would survive less than a year on current revenues. In some provinces as many as 70% of small businesses say that they will not survive a second wave of shutdowns.¹²
By The Numbers #2
According to the Conference Board of Canada, our economic recovery has flatlined and is expected to stall until mid-2021. It’s suggested that several industries may never fully recover. “Accommodation, food and beverage services, textiles, manufacturing, printing, motion pictures, and sound recordings are examples of industries that remain hard hit and face an uncertain future.” In direct correlation to these uncertainties, employment rates are not expected to return to pre-covid levels until 2025.¹³
Our Gross Domestic Product or GDP has also taken a massive hit. It will shrink by an estimated 6.6% this year, an improvement from the 8.2% originally forecasted — mind you the year is not over just yet. What was more shocking to me was that the federal stimulus programs will account for over 12% of our GDP this year so the slide is more serious than it appears.¹⁴
Our national debt is also making a record-breaking increase in 2020. What was floating around $748 billion in 2019 is forecasted to reach $1.2 trillion by the end of 2020. This will be made possible by a $343 billion dollar deficit this year alone.¹⁵
Canada is projecting a $343bn deficit — more than a 1000% increase — for the upcoming fiscal year.
— Bill Morneau
How Does Canada Dig Its Way Out of This Financial Crisis?
My immediate reaction here is that taxes will go up, again, and probably across all channels. In the past, Canada has had a tendency to introduce, raise, or cement long term taxes in times of crisis.
- In 1916, during WW1, the government introduced corporate taxes. It was originally called the Business Profits War Tax, and the government promised this would only be temporary.
- Following closely behind this was the Income War Tax, a personal tax that was once again, a wartime measure, and only temporary.
- In 1920, they threw in Sales Tax to cover the cost of the war.
- In 1941, the provinces agreed to give these taxes to the fed, by 1948, the Income War Tax was no longer considered temporary (no shit), and just replaced with Income Tax.
It appears that when times are tough, taxes go up!
Even with the newly added tax initiatives, the Canadian government did not clear its national debt after WW2. In fact, they often recorded small deficits, increasing their debt to just over $41 billion dollars by 1976.
Canada did manage to get rid of its debt — but not by paying it off. While the debt grew, so did the economy…
The debt went from being bigger than the economy to the economy being five times its size. The debt was large and growing, but the economy grew slightly faster. That’s how Canada got rid of its war debt without literally paying it off.¹⁶
Can this happen again? Sure, it’s possible, but I have my doubts. After WW2 Canada became much more self-sufficient as a country and did a lot of its own manufacturing, and production. In fact, it was quite easy to find Canadian goods across all sectors of the market. A lot of Urban areas became a part of big cities, and more rural areas were developed. Essentially this was a time of expansion across all provinces as a lot of resources were poured into infrastructure, and other areas to specifically drive growth. I’m not certain we have the right moving parts to do this again.
Regardless of the resolution today, there will be a hike in taxes at some point to insulate our economy against future downturns. Hopefully, we can all get our heads above water before this comes to fruition.
Denying The Inevitable
We all know at some point or another, the government is going to give us a slap on the ass and say, “best of luck out there, stay safe.” Well, I think that time should be sooner than later. In fact, let’s just do it now.
This is a Global Endemic
What’s the difference between a pandemic and an endemic?
A pandemic is when a disease spreads across multiple countries or continents i.e. exactly what COVID-19 did to the world.
An Endemic is when a disease doesn’t leave a place, in other words, they live with it and it never really goes away. Both the cold and flu are endemics.
So why do I think COVID-19 is endemic? Texas University did a study in April, which made a significant discovery
“If a county has detected only one case of COVID-19, there is a 51% chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway.”
In other words, we can’t control the spread of COVID-19, and it appears to be here to stay — this is an endemic, not a pandemic.¹⁷
The Average Age of Death
To my genuine surprise, the average age of death by COVID-19 in Canada is 84 years old. This is two years older than the average age of death in Canada.¹⁸
A study completed by the Montreal Economic Institute (MEI) surmised that due to the average age of death by COVID-19 in Canada, as many as 80% of these people “could simply be dying with COVID.” To strengthen this study, it was done in part by The National Health Service in Britain, and the Angus Reid Institute here in Canada.
The Potential Fallout
Early on in the era of COVID-19, a few humanitarian groups began discussing the potential loss of life due to starvation because all of the global supply chains have been disconnected. I dug a little deeper here and found a rather alarming potential outcome here:
According to the Mercy Corp, an international relief agency, as many as 9 million people die every year due to starvation. This is more than AIDS, TB, and Malaria combined. While this is devastating on its own, the United Nations has claimed that due to the break in the global supply chain, and lack of food production, this number may be double. In other words, as many as 18 million people will die every year as long as the world remains shut down.²⁰
The Vaccine Will Fix Everything, RIGHT?
“Let’s just sit tight until the vaccine is out, and then we can all go back to normal” I’ve heard this more times than I could count (mind you things get a little hazy when I get to double digits).
A vaccine fix-all would be great in theory, but the reality is less than ideal. According to the most recent study done in Canada, only 39% of the population would be willing to get the vaccine when it comes out.²¹ Okay, so what about our neighbours to the south? According to the polls at CNN just last week only 51% of Americans would take the vaccine, and they literally run on prescription drugs.²²
Honestly, I don’t blame them one bit. The average time to market for a vaccine is 10–12 years. I don’t care if the whole world is working on this vaccine, if you bring it to market 90% faster than before, there is a 0% chance I’m taking that shit. Waiting for the vaccine is clearly not the answer.
The WHO’s WHO
The World Health Organisation has backflipped on its original COVID-19 stance after calling for world leaders to stop locking down their countries and economies. The only thing lockdowns achieved was poverty.
- Dr. David Nabarro from the WHO
Mic drop.
I genuinely feel for those who have been affected by COVID-19, especially those who have lost loved ones, best friends, or partners. I also feel terrible for everyone out there who lost their life savings, their business, and homes. COVID-19 has kicked the shit out of the world in a lot of ways. I am by no means downplaying or making light of the loss and pain this virus has caused. But we are resilient people, we will fight through this just like everything else we have survived.
I know that out of the gates the potential of this virus was severe, wiping out a double-digit percentage of our global population was not out of the question. I stand behind the initial response of the government because we really didn’t know what this was. However, we are now over the hump, and we understand this thing quite well. There is no reason to take the same measures the second time around. It’s time for our government to stop politicizing COVID-19, and to back peddle out of this ‘lockdown’ mentality.
It’s time we pick up what we have left, move forward in the safest way possible, and do the best we can to live with COVID-19, the newest addition to our list of endemics.
¹ https://www.ctvnews.ca/video
² https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/list-quebec-reports-3-335-covid-19-cases-across-1-009-schools-1.5105612
³ https://www.ontario.ca/page/covid-19-cases-schools-and-child-care-centres
⁴ https://www.alberta.ca/schools/covid-19-school-status-map.htm
⁵ https://globalnews.ca/news/7349387/coronavirus-list-school-exposures-in-b-c/
⁹ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53340277
¹⁵ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53340277
¹⁸ http://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/
¹⁹ https://www.iedm.org/are-we-overestimating-how-many-canadians-are-dying-of-covid-19-2/
²¹ http://angusreid.org/covid19-vaccine-october/
²² https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/05/health/covid-19-vaccine-willingness-cnn-poll-wellness/index.html
